Sarah Palin continues to be an intriguing personality. To some she is a popular icon, while to others she’s an ongoing reality show. To some she’s a dose of fresh air, to others a bag of wind.
Since her recent surprise resignation announcement, here are some thoughts.
- No matter the spin or the reason, she quit
- For someone who complains about the media, she sure likes thrusting herself into the limelight
- Unfortunately, public scrutiny is part of being in a public figure, but obsessing the media and claiming victim are contradictory
- She is a popular Republican at a time when the party lacks interesting people – thus the perfect opportunity to make money
- I’m not convinced that her resignation ends a 2012 presidential bid – winning the nomination is another story
- She has a political base, but winning elections involves expanding the base
- To the “right-of-center” coalition she wants to build – Excuse me Governor, that’s called the Republican Party
Opinions since her resignation have covered a great range – even among Republicans. But for those who think she’s on her way to the White House, let’s do the math.
According to a nationwide USA Today poll, 67% of Republicans want Palin as “a major national political figure” and 71% would vote for her in 2012. On the contrary, 75% percent of Democrats and 55% of independents want her off the national stage.
For the sake of statistics, let’s use the following breakdown of American voters: 25% Republicans, 35% Democrats, and 40% independents. So, at best (meaning she gets all the non-negative votes) her support is (.71 * .25) + (.25 * .35) + (.45 * .40), then the quantity times 100 = 44.5% approval rating, which won’t win squat!
Both of us in this house were leaning toward John McCain and neither voted for him. His decision to offer Palin a spot on the ticket was a major mistake, as was her decision to accept. Meanwhile, when I hold my Republican ballot at the Ohio 2012 primary, she won’t get my vote. If she reappears on the November ballot, she still won’t get my vote.
Not an analysis I would have expected from a professed pragmatist. I would have thought that you would judge her on results rather than perceptions. This reads more like a list of reasons to justify a visceral response to Palin rather than a thoughtful analysis of the issues.
But there are still some interesting points to review…
“For someone who complains about the media, she sure likes thrusting herself into the limelight”
It is the nature of our political system that politicians must have exposure to the public thru the media. Does seeking that exposure remove their right to complain about unfair treatment? Be fair. I like ice cream but if I find a bug in my cone I’m going to complain.
“44.5% approval rating, which won’t win squat!”
Poll numbers are not votes.
Both voters in my house had determined not to for McCain. We changed our mind when he picked Palin. You are correct that a candidate of either party must win votes in the middle. It is also true that the same candidates must have an energized base. Palin gave that base to McCain that he otherwise would not have had. She brought in Republican votes that McCain would not otherwise have won. Even so, I know many people who normally vote Republican who did not vote for the ticket because McCain was on it.
Thersites,
Besides polls not being votes, they are only a perspective for that point in time …. thus her numbers can go in either direction. My point is that she has a lot of work to do.
McCain made a decision to solidify votes that wouldn’t have gone to Obama anyway. Yes, there’s a block of Republicans who didn’t care for him, so I understand that. On the other hand, capturing the center is still vital. Personally, the Maverick thing to do would have had a moderate Republican as a running mate. But that’s over and done.
Palin and the media is interesting. Sure she has a right to complain, and yes, the attacks by some are uncalled for.
She also a phenom to some …. cult-figure like …. thus really believe in her. Fine too … but just not me.
Thanks for the comment.
I agree that Palin has become quite popular for better or worse depending on who you ask. Based on this entry, her chances of seeing a spot in the White House are slim at best.
I’m not a political guy at all, but I did get something out of this entry that I wouldn’t have otherwise anywhere else.
Nice post!
David,
She’s an interesting person that the media follows one way or another. Good hearing from you again.
McCain thought the MILF vote would get him in
then she opened her mouth and spoke = game over lol
you should check out Bill Mahr this week
on Palin’s TIME rag cover ( titled ‘Renegade’) he says “A renegade? Puh-leeze! The only thing Palin rebelled against was family planning.”
3rd Stone,
She is both popular with her base and scorned by her opponents. As soon as McCain picked her, he gave away the “experience” argument. Meanwhile, she will become a spokesperson without gaining the experience she needs. Whatever …
Thanks for the comment.
Hello Frank! How are you? Been too long since I’ve blogged. Been busy for school. Hope you got a great day!
Hi Keb,
I’ve been on the run myself, thus unable to drop by of late … but will!
Good Post.
I’ve purposely tried to keep quiet in regards to Sarah Palin. I agree that John McCain could have selected other better qualified Republicans to run with, but he had his reasons for selecting Sarah Palin.
Although I had no intentions of voting for McCain, I respected him before the 2008 Presidential Campaign. His selection in addition to his actions made a completely different impression to me on who he really is. I believe we saw a glimpse of that once he finally spoke up at one of his rallies.
I personally enjoy the way D.L. Hughley raised a valid point through comedy. – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xp2T7KYnf-I
Sarah Palin was fun, but never believed that she will have much of a chance in 2012 going up against other Republicans who are more polished and stronger than her, but I wish her much happiness in her future plans.
Tim,
I never questioned McCain the person … a good guy with the service at heart. On the other hand, the “Maverick” pick would have been a moderate, not one further to the right than him. I continue to maintain that her selection was about rallying the monetary base.
Thanks for the Hughley bit as I hadn’t seen it before.
Thanks for the comment!