On Early GOP Handicapping

As well documented on this blog, I’m an independent moderate, thus proudly boast allegiance to no political party. True to form, I will enter the presidential primary season as an uncommitted voter.

With the 2012 presidential election season ramping up, there is a lot of buzz about the candidates seeking the Republican nomination. With my vote up for grabs, here’s an independent moderates view of the GOP landscape regarding the odds of them getting my vote – after all, odds are I will vote in Ohio’s Republican primary. Then again, I also have a history of leaving the November presidential ballot blank, but have voted Democratic – and still may.

In the words of the old British colloquialism, “Fat Chance” – in other words, these candidates have zero chance of getting my vote – nada, zilch, zero, no-way, thus I won’t even think about Michelle Bachmann, John Bolton, Newt Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain

The following have a “Slim Chance” of getting my vote. Although I will sift through additional information as it becomes available, “slim” also implies odds are against them getting my vote.

  • Rick Perry (Unannounced, but seems to be leaning)

“Maybe Chance” is for the fence-sitting candidates that I don’t know much about. That is, time will tell which way the will fall on the scale.

  • Tim Pawlenty

“Best Chance” does not mean an endorsement, nor does it I will vote for them. It simply means the candidate has the best chance of getting my primary vote.

  • Mitt Romney (yet I still believe he won’t get the nomination)
  • John Huntsman (who may be too pragmatic for the partisans)

Given the above, I won’t be surprised if the field expands over the next four months. In the mean time, many of the GOP partisans continue to back the unelectable.

25 thoughts on “On Early GOP Handicapping

  1. I’m curious about why you think Mitt can’t get the nomination. Is it the fact he’s a mormon, or the “just like Obama’s plan” healthy care record in is own state – or just something about him. I hear many republican friends say the say thing “Oh, they won’t pick Mitt” but I have never heard why.


    • Beaglez,
      Interesting question about Mitt, so here’s my take in no order of preference.

      1) Mitt’s Mormon roots will bother some, but in the end, they will forget that. After all, some stay maintain President Obama is a Muslim.

      2) Mitt has a history of waffling & flip-flopping.

      3) Regardless what he says, the Mass. healthcare plan is an albatross around his neck.

      4) Not conservative enough.

      5) He’s too wooden/puppet like.

      On the plus side, he’s not one of those in my fat-chance list. As many in the fat-chance list bumble (and many times by being themselves), his low-key approach (to date) may be to his advantage.

      Thanks for visiting and asking a good question.


  2. Oh come on, how can you NOT vote for such a charming, intelligent, and worldly lady as Sarah Palin? (I’ll tell ya why – ’cause Blackjack will hunt you down if you do, THAT is why!) 😉
    I’m not too sold on Pawlenty. He’s said a few things that give me the willies. I’m honestly not familiar with John Huntsman – I’ll have to check him out. I will definitely agree with your “no chance in Hades” category.
    A friend of mine and I came up with an interesting idea. Vladimir Putin will most likely try to regain the leadership of Russia. Since Obama is almost assured of our presidency, and we “Cold War” folk know how Russian politics works, we can speculate on a Putin/Obama matchup in 2012 – therefore, suppose we do a trade? We trade Obama to Russia to teach them REAL democracy, and we bring Putin’s strong-arm tactics over here to clean out Congress. Then we swap ’em back after a couple years, and BOTH countries benefit!
    Then again, both he and I don’t just think outside the box, we tend to think outside the planet. 😀


    • John,
      Interesting Obama/Putin trade. LOL … but a lot of subtle meaning in the statement.

      In terms of Pawlenty, I give him a “Maybe Chance” for two reasons: 1) He yet to demonstrate qualifications for the “Fat Chance” list, and 2) I don’t know much about him and his positions yet – therefore, at this point in time, I’m willing to give him a chance. Yet, time will push him on my scale in one direction or another.

      And I’m glad to be on Blackjack’s side regarding the nincompoop. Thanks for commenting.


    • Nonnie,
      His statement about seceding is a black cloud in my mind, thus why the odds are very against him for my vote. Otherwise, and to be honest, I don’t know much about him (besides he and President GW Bush aren’t best buddies) – thus I’m willing to giving him a little slack – but not much, otherwise he goes to the Fat Chance list. Thanks for the good question.


  3. From what I have heard so far, I think I might actually be able to vote for Hermann Cain, but I really don’t know all that much about him yet. I have also heard some good things come out of Ron Paul, but he is an isolationist, which is not a road that I want our country to go down again.

    I don’t think the re-election of President Obama is in any danger, however. For unless he gets caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl, other than his wife, of course, he’ll be back for another four years.


    • FishHawk,
      Although it is difficult to unseat an incumbent president, I believe President Obama is vulnerable. However, given the list of present/potential GOP candidates, they are making it easier for the president. Then again, a lot can happen in the next 18 months. Thanks for visiting and commenting.


  4. My liberal friends tell me that watching John Huntsman live and hearing him speak is like seeing another John F. Kennedy. I look forward to his participation in the GOP debates and will be interested in the reactions to his ideas and style by independent moderates planning to vote in the Republican Primary elections.


    • TIm,
      On paper, John Huntsman should appeal to moderates and traditional Republicans … BUT … not those who support those on my Fat Chance list. It will be interesting to see if he can get any traction with voters. Thanks for sharing.


        • Spinny,
          Maybe so. On the other hand, much of America doesn’t know much about him. I agree about the Tea Party folks, however, they are a stubborn bunch who think they are speaking for a majority of Americans, thus a prime example of why I believe they have misread the 2010 election results.

          In terms of me, I used to rotate my ballot in the primaries. For instance, poll workers would ask which ballot I want, and I would take the one I didn’t take the time before. I’m correctly on a streak of voting in the GOP primary b/c that is the only way a local voter can have a say in the races for local offices … after all, odds are extremely high a Republican will win a local contest in my area.

          Thanks for stopping by!


  5. GOOD Morning, Frank!

    The sensible Republicans (no, that’s not an oxymoron as there are really some who do make sense–think Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown), would be wise to court the votes of seasoned/wise independent voters like yourself in the 2012 Presidential Election. Thanks for yet another interesting read, and I share your sentiments regarding the folks you dubbed “Fat Chance” candidates as it relates to getting your vote.


    • Good Morning Al,
      I figured you would appreciate this post. Right now, the sensible Republicans are the silent ones. I really believe they watch the Tea Party and then shake their head. However, somewhere, I see a divorce. The question isn’t IF, it’s WHEN! Thanks for commenting.


  6. If the election were held today, Obama would wax their butts. The GOP, still does not have a Olympic class candidate who will capture the imagination and loyalty of a majority of American voters. And the clock is ticking ticktock, ticktock, ticktock, ticktock, ticktock, ticktock, etc, etc, etc



  7. Ok, Frank – if you even think about voting for Rick Perry, I will gag. Not that it will stop you. He is THE WORST GOVERNOR EVER IN THE ENTIRE HISTORY AND WORLD OF GOVERNORS. He has possibly one-half of one brain cell, he has done Texas no favors. The only thing going for him is his looks – and THAT is no reason to run for President. The only reason he’s been elected Governor repeatedly is because all the damn Aggies voted for him. Whew, now I feel better.


    • Izzy,
      LOL … So now I’ve gotten the word from a Texan. Thanks. As I responded in another comment, although he was on thin ice, I was giving him a little leeway since I don’t know much about him. Although I figured he would move into the Fat Chance group.

      Thanks for visiting and sharing!


  8. I’m going to take Romney and the points. He’s got that Hubert Humphrey “most electable guy in the field” vibe going. He’ll be good to draw some fire for the party until the heavyweights get in in 2016. If Romney starts a campaign of Ed Muskie-like self-destruction, I’d guess Pawlenty becomes this year’s sacrificial lamb.

    I’m kinda depressed that Mitch Daniels isn’t in. He had the potential to turn the whole thing into an intelligent conversation. I can’t say I would have voted for him, but I would have had a good time listening to him be wrong. I might have even learned a thing or two.

    I can’t see Rick Perry getting elected dogcatcher of Palookaville unless the South magically gets 271 electoral votes. That secessionist jive may impress the folks at Bob Jones, but it doesn’t work in most of the rest of the country.


    • Keith,
      Welcome to a first timer and I appreciate your thoughtful comment. I’m having a difficult time seeing Romney firing up the TP folks … and not sure he can flip flop enough regarding health care. But there’s a lot of time so it will be interesting. But looking at the list, they don’t have a quantity problem … but quality is the problem. Thanks for visiting and hope you return.


  9. So where does Rudy “9/11” Giuliani fall on your “not just no, but hell no” scale? 😀 (There is talk he’s about to declare.)


    • Bruce,
      I knowingly left off Gov Christie b/c I’m taking him at his word as he continually says he’s not interested. However, both of us know that he could change his mind. Personally, I don’t think he will, but that’s just a hunch. Thanks for commenting.


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