As the unemployment rate continues to slowly lower, I offer the following thoughts.
- In January 2008, 7.6 million were unemployed (4.9%)
- In the 7 months prior to Sept 2008, unemployment grow by 1.259 million
- From September 2008 through March 2009, unemployment grow by 5.779 million
- In the 9 months following March 2009, unemployment grew by 1.495 million
If 8.533 million Americans lost their job in the economic collapse of 2008-2009 – and improving the job market by 100,000 per month will take approximately 86 months – that is over 7 years to return to the unemployment rate of January 2008 (4.9%), of course with assumptions.
However, the 86 months does not account for colleges continuing to graduate people ready to enter the job market, nor military personal returning to the civilian workforce – oh, surely we haven’t forgotten that the unemployment rate in those two groups is higher than the average.
If job growth continues to improves, the discouraged worker (unemployed, but not looking) will seek work, thus unemployment could rise. See this graph from Bruce.
Of course given that unemployed has an official definition and that other categories exist, this provides more statistics so any partisan can find numbers to justify their point and to say what other partisans want to hear.
Republicans continually complain about the slow jobs numbers, but they continue never to address the following:
- Being for smaller government, how many federal workers do you plan to layoff?
- Being against the auto bailout, how many additional workers would have lost their jobs in addition to the 8.533 million?
To the Democrats and the White House I ask the following:
- Because the sensible already know, when are you going to stop emphasizing the inherited situation?
- When are you going to admit that you spent too much political capital on the health care debate at a time when the economy was at the top of the list?
Although none of us are perfect and each of us use a preference filter of some sort, the American public needs to remove their head from their ideological anal orifice, shed the partisan filters, stop listening to political horseshit, and learn to understand the situation – thus checking out what the accuracy and inaccuracies from the talking heads. Then, and only then, the public can have meaningful discussions to not only agree and disagree, but to also determine the course.
Ah – at least now I feel better, but I have little hope for this.